I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events. This should give us cause to reflect on how hard a job it is to make genuinely useful forecasts. What we have seen is truly a ‘tail’ outcome – the kind of outcome that the routine forecasting process never predicts. But it has occurred, it has implications, and so we must reflect on it.Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia quoted by Dirk J Bezemer of the University of Groningen. Dirk proves that the common wisdom is wrong and lists a number of economist who saw it coming. The full article is worth a read.
Ram and Goat (1)
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Interpreting prophetic scriptures is a tricky task, so when you make a
mistake, you should admit it. Especially if you have put it in writing. I
will exp...
1 day ago
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